Резюме:

Nikolay Dmitriyevich Kondratyev - one of outstanding representatives Russian school of economic thought of the end of XIX and beginning of the XX centuries. In brought to attention of readers to the book works of the author on big cycles of an environment and the prediction theory are collected. Among them there is published in 1922 in Vologda and the book which has become a rare book "A world economy and its environments during time and after war". Its reprinting allows to specify time of creation of the theory of long waves in economic dynamics. Today it is clear that it made it essentially earlier, than it was considered to be. Big cycles of an environment were and remain still a subject of wide discussion between scientists. And it is quite clear if to consider them not as the certain set dogma, and as real object of the scientific analysis. It would be erroneous to consider that N. D. Kondratyev foresaw a course of events from the moment of creation of the theory up to now. Such prediction wasn´t neither at A.Smita, nor at K.Marx, at D. Keynes. Great scientists don´t need assignment of an image of the prophet by it.Reprinting of works of N. D. Kondratyev – a gift for researchers of its heritage and for those who is sincerely keen on surprisingly bright and multi-color history of modern economic thought./L.Abalkin, academician, director of Institute of economy of the Russian Academy of Sciences, president of the International fund of N. D. Kondratyev

Keywords: long waves, big cycles of an environment, world economy, statics, dynamics, crisis, model of economic dynamics of an economy, theory of a prediction and methodology of advance planning

Kondratyev N. D., Yakovets Yu.V., Abalkin L. I.: Big cycles of an environment and prediction theory. The chosen works. M: Economy, 2002 // Ноосфера. Общество. Человек. – 2012. – № 11;
URL: www.es.rae.ru/noocivil/191-879 (Date Access: 17.05.2024).

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